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Posts with tag: spending | Return to ShoppingBlog.com Homepage

NRF Forecasts Valentine's Day Spending to be Similar to 2009

Candy Heart ClipartAccording to NRF's 2010 Valentine's Day Consumer Intentions and Actions Survey, conducted by BIGresearch, couples will spend less money on each other than last year. Last year couples spent an average of $67.22. That amount is forecast to drop nearly 10% to $63.34 this year. The NRF forecasts couples to spend less but individuals will spend a little more overall. The survey predicts the average person will spend $103.00 on Valentine's Day merchandise this year, which is very similar to last year's $102.50. Valentine's Day spending in 2009 - during the middle of the recession - was not very good for retailers. The news that this year won't be better probably isn't what retailers want to hear.

The items people are buying include typical Valentine's Day gifts like flowers, chocolate and cards. Traditional gifts such as greeting cards (54.9%), candy (47.2%) and flowers (35.6%) remain popular choices. Spending on clothing is expected to climb (14.4% vs. 10.2% in 2009) while jewelry spending is expected to fall slightly (15.5% vs. 16.0% last year).

Americans will spend more on friends, co-workers and pets this year. The average person will spend $5.37 on friends, up from $4.74 last year; $4.29 on classmates and teachers, compared to $3.59 last year; and $2.84 on co-workers, slightly up from the $1.94 they spent in 2009. The average person will spend $3.27 on pets this year - a big jump from $2.17 last year. Spending on family members will remain the same ($20.94 vs. $20.95 last year).

Men will spend nearly twice the amount women spend on the holiday. The average man plans to shell out $135.35 to impress the people in his life while women only expect to spend $72.28. Men spending a lot more than women is typical for Valentine's Day.

Posted on February 1, 2010
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Ultra Wealthy Starting to Spend Again, But Quietly

In an interesting new article Laura M. Holson of The New York Times looks into the current spending habits of the very wealthy. Fed up with pretending to be paupers, bankers and bankers' wives are finally splashing out on luxury items, such as new cars, new vacation homes and jewelry. But with all the fury on Main Street at the huge bonuses being handed out on Wall Street, wealthy bankers are still keeping their luxury purchases on the down low.
Last year, investment bankers and their spouses kept their wallets shut during bonus season, first, out of panic, and later, fearing mobs with torches would descend upon their gated estates. Now, after a year of self-imposed austerity and in what is shaping up as a spectacular bonus season, the Wall Street crowd is shaking off what one luxury retailer called its "frugal fatigue." Unlike earlier spending sprees, however, the consumption will be a lot less conspicuous.

On Wednesday, Morgan Stanley said it was setting aside $14.4 billion for salary and bonuses, or $235,000 per employee. A day later Goldman Sachs said it would pay an average of $498,000, with top producers at each of the two banks earning in the millions.

*****

Suzanne Johnson, the general manager of Saks Fifth Avenue's flagship store, said many wealthy customers were suffering from what she called "frugal fatigue." After a year of looking, they are ready to treat themselves. Next month, Saks is holding an event at its Kiton men's wear boutique where made-to-order suits can cost as much as $21,000. It will feature Kiton's craftsmen and is timed to bonus season, she said.

She recalled, too, a couple -- the husband was a banker -- who came in last month and looked at a pair of earrings from the Roberto Coin Cento collection that cost about $5,000. Days later he returned and bought them for his wife. "They are turning 'looking' into an 'impulse buy,'" Ms. Johnson said. "It is about inner self-gratification rather than letting people know how rich you are."
Polls show that Americans are very unhappy with the bank bailouts and the huge bonuses that the bailed out companies' executives continue to receive. Yet at the same time, our economy is driven by spending. After 9/11, for example, many waiters, busboys, limo drivers and other workers became unemployed when people stopped dining out in Manhattan.

Restaurants, hotels, automakers and retailers can't stay open when people -- especially the middle class and the wealthy -- stop shopping, so even more jobs are lost. Which brings us right back to the biggest problem facing our economy today: the lack of jobs. Until more jobs are created, this situation isn't going to improve.

Posted on January 24, 2010
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Consumer Credit Declines by Record Amount

2009 was a very rough year for American consumers. With unemployment at a 26 year high, the majority of Americans have severely curtailed their spending, and have slashed their use of credit cards. Consumer credit dropped a record $17.5 billion in November, as spending stopped, and credit card companies booted customers, raised rates and lowered credit limits.
The slump in credit to $2.46 trillion was more than anticipated and followed a revised $4.2 billion drop in October, Federal Reserve figures showed today in Washington. The median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News projected a decrease of $5 billion. The figures track credit card debt and non-revolving loans, such as those to buy autos.

A labor market that's shed 7.2 million jobs since the recession started in December 2007 is restraining consumer spending that accounts for about 70 percent of the economy. Fed policy makers have said tighter bank lending standards and reductions in credit lines are hampering the recovery.

"Double-digit unemployment is eroding consumer confidence and the uncertainty is prompting consumers to pay down their credit card debts," said Chris Rupkey, chief financial economist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd. in New York. "We have not seen such a wholesale reduction in consumer credit since the last time we had double-digit unemployment rate following the early '80s recessions."

The series of 10 straight declines in consumer credit was the longest since record-keeping began in 1943.
Credit card companies are also raising interest and penalty rates, and making other anti-consumer moves to get ahead of a new federal law that regulates credit card company practices. Be sure to read carefully anything you get from your credit card issuer in the next several months.

Posted on January 10, 2010
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December Retail Sales Better Than Anticipated

New reports say that holiday spending was more than originally forecasted by retail trade groups. Lower priced retailers such as TJ Maxx and luxury retailers such as Neiman Marcus both showed better results than anticipated. Bloomberg reports:
Sales climbed 14 percent at TJX Cos.' stores open at least a year, beating the 5.9 percent average of analysts' estimates compiled by Retail Metrics Inc. Aeropostale Inc. jumped 10 percent, compared with a 3 percent projection. Sears Holdings Corp. posted a sales gain and issued a profit forecast that topped analysts' projections.

After an East Coast snowstorm snarled sales the weekend before Christmas, shoppers made up for it with online buying and discount hunting. A "last-minute sales surge" lifted December comparable-store sales 3 percent, the biggest gain since April 2008, Retail Metrics said today. "Retailers are breathing a big sigh of relief here," Ken Perkins, president of Swampscott, Massachusetts-based Retail Metrics, said today in a telephone interview.

*****

Luxury retailers also beat sales estimates. Nordstrom Inc.'s sales gained 7.4 percent, compared with a 1.7 percent estimate. Annual profit will exceed its forecast of $1.83 to $1.88 a share, the Seattle-based chain said. Neiman Marcus Group Inc. posted a 4.5 percent gain. Grant Jordan, a fixed-income analyst at Wells Fargo Securities LLC in Charlotte, North Carolina, anticipated a 3 percent increase for the Dallas-based luxury retailer. Closely held Neiman Marcus doesn't provide forecasts.
The National Retail Federation isn't buying it. An NRF rep Kathy Grannis told Bloomberg "At this point we are not changing our forecast." The NRF forecast a 1% decline in spending from last year.

Posted on January 7, 2010
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Late Season Surge Helps Retail Sales Gain 3.6% Over Last year

Bloomberg reports that data from MasterCard Advisors' SpendingPulse indicates that holiday retail sales climbed 3.6% over 2008's sales. Electronics were up 5.9% compared to the year before.
A jump in purchases the week before Christmas helped year-over-year electronics sales increase 5.9 percent from Nov. 1 to Dec. 24, MasterCard Advisors' SpendingPulse said in a statement. Jewelry and luxury sales also gained, the research firm said.

The increase may signal that revenue at retailers will beat trade groups’ forecasts for the two-month period ending Jan. 2. Shoppers resumed purchasing this season as consumer confidence rebounded from a record low in February.

"We saw a nice little surge toward the end of the season," with the pace picking up Dec. 22, 23 and 24, said Michael McNamara, a vice president for research and analysis at SpendingPulse, in a Bloomberg Television interview today. "Last year, we were in critical condition, this year, in stable."
This is good news if it is confirmed by other holiday retail data. The National Retail Federation (NRF) - which predicted sales would decrease 1% this holiday season - has not yet reported data on holiday sales for 2009.

Posted on December 28, 2009
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Retailers Staying Open Late, Offering Bigger Discounts

Severe weather in the northeast has really hurt retailers this holiday season. Stores are staying open later tonight and offering even further discounts to lure in shoppers.
Target Corp. extended its hours to midnight Dec. 21 through yesterday. Borders Group Inc., Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and Toys R Us Inc. also kept stores open longer. Best Buy Co. offered some DVDs for half off and Jos. A. Bank Clothiers Inc., a men's clothing chain, deepened discounts to at least 50 percent.

"We didn't intend to do everything, and now we're doing everything," Jos. A. Bank Chief Executive Officer Neal Black, 54, said Dec. 22 by telephone from the company's Hampstead, Maryland, headquarters. "We'll be slugging right down to the last minute."

*****

Walmart, the world's largest retailer, will keep most of its 803 discount stores and its Sam's Clubs open until 8 p.m. today, two hours later than last year, said John Simley, a spokesman. Amazon.com Inc. extended by one day, until Dec. 21, its cutoff for standard shipping.
If you decide to brave the malls today you will see big discounts, although the selection may not be that great. Stores have really reduced inventory this holiday season.

Posted on December 24, 2009
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Consumer Spending Starting to Increase

New figures from the Commerce Department show that retail spending is starting to pick up speed. Consumer purchasing exceeded expectations in November, especially in the auto industry, Bloomberg reports:
Sales at U.S. retailers rose more than forecast in November, a sign consumer spending is gathering speed heading into 2010. The 1.3 percent increase followed a 1.1 percent gain the prior month that was smaller than previously estimated, Commerce Department figures showed today in Washington. Purchases excluding autos climbed 1.2 percent, also more than anticipated and the biggest gain since January.

Households have kept buying automobiles even after government incentives expired, showing the biggest part of the economy was weathering the worst employment slump in the postwar era. The Obama administration is proposing new initiatives in a bid to create jobs, while Best Buy Inc. is among retailers using discounts to lure budget-conscious holiday shoppers.

"Consumer spending continues to surprise on the upside as the economy moves further away from the end of the recession," Chris Rupkey, chief financial economist at Bank of Tokyo- Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd. In New York, said before the report. "The labor market is showing signs of stabilization and this is giving consumers greater confidence to spend a little more."
The report from the Labor Department showed that the economy lsot 11,000 jobs which is the least number of monthly jobs lost since December, 2007. Of course, the economy needs to create more than 100,000 jobs a month just to keep up with demand for jobs, so when a loss of 11,000 jobs in a month is heralded as "good news" you know the economy is really, really bad. Still, losing 11,000 jobs in a month is better than shedding 50,000.

Posted on December 11, 2009
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Retailers Holding Bigger Discounts in Reserve for Last Minute Shoppers

The week after Black Friday is traditionally slow for retailers, but this year it was really slow. But retailers haven't caved in to the pressure and have not pulled out all the stops to get customers into stores. This weekend is the key: if the numbers are bad, look for much bigger discounts and last minute sales. The Wall Street Journal reports:
Nine of 10 people waiting to finish their holiday shopping are doing so to get discounts of at least 50%, according to a survey released Thursday by UBS and market researcher America's Research Group Ltd. A third of respondents said they are holding out for a 70% discount.

Retailers are reluctant to hit the panic button. So far, they have avoided drastic price cuts by hewing to carefully planned promotions and limiting inventories. But if shoppers aren't out in force this weekend, many mall-based clothing retailers have arranged contingency plans for additional sales and markdowns. "If we don't have to do it, believe me, we're not going to do it," said Kay Krill, chief executive of women's clothing chain AnnTaylor Stores Corp. Its Ann Taylor and its Loft outlets have discount banners "ready to go" should consumers need an incentive to shop, she said.

The first week of December, typically a lackluster time in the wake of Black Friday, was particularly slow. Sales for the week ended Dec. 5 fell 18% from the prior-week period, which included Black Friday, according to market researcher ShopperTrak RCT Corp. Last year, when the recession was in full force, sales fell a lesser 14%, according to the firm, which compiles shopping traffic at malls and uses sales statistics, as well as Commerce Department figures, for its estimate.

"After solid traffic the first couple of days, it looks like the middle of August out there," said Stephen Baker, vice president of industry analysis for retail watcher NPD Group.
Many retailers have let Black Friday promotions go on longer than usual, but generally speaking you have to search to find the really great deals right now. It's very likely that there will be some last minute bargains this year. Walmart has already announced plans to sell a Magnavox Blu-ray Player for $78 starting this weekend. This matches the retailer's Black Friday offering for the player.

Posted on December 10, 2009
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Consumer Spending: It's All About the Bargains

The Wall Street Journal reports that consumers are really spooked by the 10.2% unemployment rate and are continuing to hold back spending to only essential items. And bargains are key. Many brands are having to change marketing and production strategies in order to hand on to their customers.
The recession may be over but companies that cater to consumers believe people are digging in for a long, frugal winter. That's why Clorox Co. is keeping the price steady on a new improved trash bag that grips the top of the garbage can. Clorox says it wants to highlight the bags' "greater value." Similarly, Campbell Soup Co. recently reduced the promoted price of its V8 beverages in some markets to 2 for $5 from 2 for $6. Burger King Holdings Inc. is selling double cheeseburgers for just a dollar.

*****

Pricing is perhaps where companies are finding consumers at their most grudging. Procter & Gamble Co. and other major makers of household staples, while vowing to resist price wars, say they plan to flood stores with enhanced versions of existing products. After nearly a decade of introducing increasingly expensive items, P&G's new products will span a wider range of prices, most notably at the low end. Among its efforts, P&G is paring the price of its Cheer detergent to reposition it as a "value" brand.

Beauty products maker Estee Lauder Cos. Inc. recently reported better-than-expected results in a sign that consumers are starting to boost discretionary spending. But Estee Lauder CEO Fabrizio Freda told analysts it's "prudent to remain cautious in our outlook" because of high unemployment and weak consumer sentiment. As a result, Mr. Freda said Estee Lauder's holiday gift sets will offer wider price ranges to give consumers greater choice.
Supermarkets are noticing that more people are using coupons and buying less than they used to. These days, it's all about who has the best prices and the steepest discounts.

Posted on November 8, 2009
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Deloitte Report: Consumers Suffering From Frugal Fatigue

Consulting firm Deloitte, LLP released a report today that says that consumers will be spending less on gifts this holiday season, but they will be spending more on clothing, entertainment and home furnishings. The report said that consumers are really tired of having to be so frugal.
Consumers who have deferred spending on home goods and clothing for themselves will come out to seek bargains, said Stacy Janiak, vice chairman and head of U.S. retail at New York- based Deloitte. "It is a comeback, somewhat," Janiak said in a telephone interview yesterday. "There is a replenishment need that’s out there. Everyone pulled back last year and kind of made do with home furnishings and decorations" from previous years.

*****

Consumers like to spend during the holidays and are suffering from "frugal fatigue," said Marshal Cohen, chief industry analyst for NPD Group, a market-research firm in Port Washington, New York. "The consumer's clearly telling us that they're beginning to get a bit tired of having to save money," Cohen said on a conference call hosted by Dow Jones Indexes and STOXX Ltd. yesterday.
54% of those surveyed said that they expect the economy to improve next year, which is a better result than last year's survey. 51% of those surveyed said that they hope to spend as much this holiday as they did last year, but the spending won't be on presents so much as on items for themselves.

Posted on October 28, 2009
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Bad Economy Curtailing Halloween Spending

The NRF provided a dismal forecast for Halloween retail sales this year. Spending is expected to be down around $10 a person or 15%. MSNBC reports that some families are making their own costumes this year or only getting a store bought costume for a child if it is his or her first Halloween. Some stores are trying pairings to get consumers to spend. MSNBC says Target has run some promotions where they throw in a free candy bag if a customer buys a costume. Take a look:



Posted on October 24, 2009
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UPS Profits Down 43%

UPS reported that its third quarter profits are down 43%. UPS earning reflect economic activity in the U.S. because it ships half of all packages sent, from clothing to documents to medical supplies. UPS is the world's largest delivery company.
Net income slid to $549 million, or 55 cents a share, from $970 million, or 96 cents, a year earlier, Atlanta-based UPS said today in a statement. Revenue fell 15 percent to $11.2 billion.

UPS is considered a proxy for the U.S. economy because it handles half of all packages sent, ranging from auto parts and medicine to financial documents and clothing. UPS's Ground unit volume slid 6.2 percent as a competing service from FedEx Corp. took away some deliveries, said Donald Broughton, an analyst at Avondale Partners LLC in Nashville, Tennessee. He rates the shares "market perform." "Ground is the bread and butter of UPS and if that's down, it's not good," he said. "The underlying business was weaker than we expected."
UPS hired 60,000 temporary workers for Christmas two years ago. This year the company plans on hiring 50,000 temporary workers. The company won't give a forecast of how it sees sales this holiday season, saying that it has so many different types of customers that a forecast is difficult. But it is expected to be slower than usual.

Posted on October 22, 2009
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Report: Spending on Luxury Goods and Services Increased in Third Quarter

In a good sign for the retail industry, wealthy shoppers increased spending by 29% on luxury goods and services in the third quarter, according to a new report by Unity Marketing.
Spending among 1,067 consumers with average annual income of $228,800 rose to $18,826 each in the three months ended in September from $14,554 a quarter earlier, the Stevens, Pennsylvania-based luxury-market research firm said today. Shoppers cut spending by 3.2 percent in the second quarter and spent $13,429 in the third quarter of 2008.

The increase was driven by consumers with the highest income levels, starting at $250,000 a year, said Pam Danziger, Unity's Marketing's president. Spending was strongest in the home, travel and dining segments, she said. The wealthy curbed purchasing earlier this year because of Wall Street job cuts, lower home values and volatile financial markets.

"No question that this quarter's spending increase is good news for luxury marketers," Danziger said in a telephone interview today. "Many affluent consumers returned after sitting on the sidelines for a year. However, the richest are few in number, 2.5 million households, so competition will be fierce to win their attention."
Purchases increased in almost all categories of luxury goods and services. The only categories where wealthy consumers are not increasing spending is art, fashion accessories and fashion apparel.

Posted on October 17, 2009
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Wealthy Americans Will Spend 5% Less This Holiday Season

A new report from the American Affluence Research Center says that wealthy Americans are planning on spending 5% less this holiday season. For purposes of the study, wealthy was defined as families making over $300,000 a year.
Respondents with average incomes of $300,000 said they will spend $2,380 on average this year, compared with $2,505 last year, according to the survey. Nine percent said they won't buy any gifts, 38 percent said they will spend less, 59 percent said their expenditures will remain the same and 3 percent said they will spend more. In the U.S., the wealthy have curbed purchasing for more than a year because of Wall Street job cuts, volatile financial markets and lower home values.

"Most of these households continue to be cautious about their spending, because they do not expect to see a true recovery of the economy and their net worth for two years or more," Ron Kurtz, the Alpharetta, Georgia-based center's founder, said.
Kurtz says he believes that last year was the worst year for holiday spending and that this year will be bad for retailers, but not quite as bad as last year. The average net worth of the 684 adult consumers surveyed was $3.1 million. You know the economy is bad when 9% of wealthy families aren't planning on spending anything at all on the holiday season.

Posted on October 12, 2009
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NRF Forecast Holiday Spending to Fall 1%

The National Retail Federation has released its 2009 holiday forecast. They project holiday retail industry sales to decline one percent this year to $437.6 billion. The NRF says even though the decline falls significantly below the ten-year average of 3.39 percent holiday season growth, it is not expected to be as dramatic as last year's 3.4% in holiday retail sales nor as severe as the 3.0% decline in annual retail industry sales expected for all of 2009.

"As the global economy continues to recover from the worst economic crisis most retailers have ever seen, Americans will focus primarily on practical gifts and shop on a budget this holiday season," said NRF Chief Economist Rosalind Wells.

NRF's report points to hopeful recover signs such as better-than-expected sales in August and momentum in the stock market. However, they note that continued consumer uncertainty over job security and housing values will take a toll on spending this holiday season. They also report that discounts and promotions could cause some deflation in categories like apparel and electronics.

"The expectation of another challenging holiday season does not come as news to retailers, who have been experiencing a pullback in consumer spending for over a year," said NRF President and CEO Tracy Mullin. "To compensate, retailers' focus on the holiday season has been razor-sharp with companies cutting back as much as possible on operating costs in order to pass along aggressive savings and promotions to customers."

The NRF's report sounds more realistic in an environment of record layoffs than other reports - such as the reports from the ICSC - that have called for flat sales or even an increase in sales.

Posted on October 6, 2009
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