The upcoming U.S. holiday shopping season, typically a period of high consumer spending, will be eyed as a measure of economic recovery. Holiday travel and more shopping outings may boost oil consumption over the season, but more expensive fuel could curb these trips.

"A hike in discretionary driving associated with holiday shopping trips will exert more demand pressure, although if pump prices move above $3, it will not only kill discretionary driving but holiday shopping too," said Mike Fitzpatrick of MF Global in New York.

But fundamentally, there is much to restrain prices. Fuel supplies are brimming and that could make it harder for refiners to raise retail gasoline prices, delaying the impact of higher oil prices on consumers.

The average price of a gallon of self-serve regular was $2.655 as of October 23, said Trilby Lundberg, author of the Lundberg Survey. Since the October 9 survey, the average price per gallon has climbed by 17.82 cents. The current price is 12.3 cents less than the price a year ago.

The retail price of diesel fuel jumped a similar amount in the past two weeks -- 16.75 cents. The price of diesel fuel is $2.817, Lundberg said.

There has been no significant increase in the demand for crude oil, nor large decrease in supplies of crude that can explain almost a $9 per barrel jump in the past two weeks, according to Lundberg. Crude oil now costs $80.50 a barrel.

California's average price for a gallon of regular dropped to $2.89 Tuesday, after peaking at $3.03 last month. The national average, which reached $2.69 in June, fell to $2.52 on Tuesday, according to the AAA automotive club.

"Absent any big rise in crude oil prices, we do think we've seen the peak for gas," said Douglas MacIntyre, senior oil market analyst with the U.S. Energy Information Administration, the statistics branch of the Department of Energy.

This continues an incremental but steady downward trend in prices that began earlier this summer. In just a month, the price has fallen roughly 18 cents. This is good news for drivers and an economy still trying to pull out of a deep recession.

Nationally, the average price was $2.642 a gallon, down 4.9 cents over the previous week.

At this time last year, the average cost per gallon was $4.573 in California and $4.095 nationally.

"They go up like a rocket and come down like they are on a parachute," said mechanic Lloyd Haines as he filled up on $2.85-a-gallon gas at a Chevron station on his way to work Monday morning.

Gas prices have risen 41 days in a row, to a national average of almost $2.62 a gallon. That is a sharp increase from the low of $1.62 a gallon that prevailed at the end of last year.

Refinery problems are producing especially high prices in the Midwest, a region that was already reeling from the economic crisis. Michigan, the state with the highest unemployment rate, at 12.9 percent, is now paying the highest gasoline prices, averaging $2.93 a gallon.

The national jump in prices, far larger than the normal seasonal increase, is pulling billions of dollars from the pockets of drivers. It threatens to curtail a modest recovery in consumer spending on items like apparel and electronics.

After increasing 62 percent since December, the price of gasoline is actually lagging behind the increase in the price of oil, which has doubled in the same period, to more than $68 in recent days.

The average price for a gallon of gasoline in the United States increased nearly 25 cents in the past three weeks on a rise in crude oil prices, according to the Lundberg survey released on Sunday.

The average national price for self-serve, regular, unleaded gasoline was $2.3010 a gallon on May 15, up from $2.0549 a gallon on April 24, according to a nationwide survey of 5,000 gas stations.

Prices rose about 8.2 cents a week on average.

The price is below last year's levels and far below the high of more than $4.11 a gallon set on July 11, 2008.

The average national price for self-serve regular unleaded gasoline was $2.048 a gallon on April 10, up 9.58 cents from March 20, according to the survey of gas stations.

The price was a whopping $1.27 below a year ago levels, when crude oil prices soared.

"The major cause of the rise of nearly a dime in three weeks is seasonal gasoline demand, not only because our consumption rises month by month, but because of the cost of environmental compliance," Survey editor Trilby Lundberg said in an interview.

As the weather warms, refiners are required to limit vapor pressure in order to avoid smog production. This adds to the cost per gallon, she said.

A big reason for the disparity: refiners. Beset by weak consumer demand and losses on gasoline sales, oil refiners have scaled back production since late December. The average utilization rate at U.S. refineries was 81.5% as of Feb. 6, the lowest in 17 years, not including hurricane-related slowdowns, according to the Energy Information Administration. As recently as early December, refineries were running at 87.4% of capacity.

Refineries typically shut some units for maintenance this time of year. But many are trimming output because demand is anemic. That tends to rile consumers who view low gas prices as a small silver lining in a dismal economy. But go easy on the poor refiner, analysts say.

"If you're losing money on something and you're producing at 90%, you're going to cut back," says OPIS chief oil analyst Tom Kloza.

"If there's no demand, ... there's really not a whole lot of point to making extra gasoline," says Bill Day, spokesman for Valero, the largest independent U.S. refiner.

"Moderately rising oil prices are the chief reason gasoline prices are up," said Lundberg. "Also, low gasoline prices did their work and have breathed a little life back into gasoline demand."

Lundberg said that for full year 2008, gasoline demand suffered shrinkage of 3.5 percent but that after the five-month price crash, demand's latest decline is just 0.6 percent.

A roughly 50 percent increase in gasoline and diesel fuel taxes is being urged by the commission until the government devises another way for motorists to pay for using public roads.

The 15-member National Commission on Surface Transportation Infrastructure Financing is the second group in a year to call for increasing the current 18.4 cents a gallon federal tax on gasoline and the 24.4 cents a gallon tax on diesel. State fuel taxes vary from state to state.

In a report expected in late January, members of the infrastructure financing commission say they will urge Congress to raise the gas tax by 10 cents a gallon and the diesel tax by about 12 cents to 15 cents a gallon. At the same time, the commission will recommend tying the fuel tax rates to inflation.

The commission will also recommend that states raise their fuel taxes and make greater use of toll roads and fees for rush-hour driving.

The national average price dropped for its eighth consecutive day to $1.630 a gallon, down 1.2 cents from the previous day, according to the motorist group AAA.

The national average last hit close to the current price on Feb. 18, 2004, when it averaged at $1.63.

Prices are down 60% from the record high of $4.114 a gallon touched on July 17.

The average price of self-serve, unleaded gasoline on Friday in the United States was $1.97, said Trilby Lundberg, publisher of the Lundberg Survey. The last time the price was below $2 was on March 4, 2005, she said.

The all-time high average was $4.11, set on July 11, according to Lundberg, and prices have been dropping ever since.

"The rate of decline has slowed somewhat, but it is still dramatic at 33 cents in two weeks," she said.

Diesel prices averaged $2.93 on Friday, slumping under $3 for the first time since September 2007, she said.

A CNN/Opinion Research Corp. poll found that 94% of respondents expect they will have to pay $4 a gallon sometime this year - and 78% said they figure it will hit $5. The national average for gasoline was $3.61 on Monday, according to motorist group AAA. Consumers' fears that they will have to pay more have intensified. A year ago, 79% thought gas would cost $4 by the end of 2007 and only 28% feared $5 gas.

At the same time, high prices seem to be easier to swallow now than it has been for most consumers in the past. Of the more than 1,000 American adults surveyed in the poll, conducted April 28-30, 60% said high fuel prices have caused hardship for them or their household. That's down from 72% in March and 66% during the same time last year.

But if Americans feel better able to absorb the rising price of gas, it might be because they are driving less. In fact, demand for gas is far below the average for this time of year. "It takes a big jump in prices to alter commuters' behavior, but it appears we have now approached that level," said Stephen Schork, editor of energy industry newsletter The Schork Report.

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In addition to cutting back on driving, consumers are also buying more fuel-efficient vehicles. U.S. automakers reported a continued drop in SUV and truck sales in April, but smaller cars and hybrid vehicles have increased dramatically. Sales of Toyota's hybrid Prius rose 67% in April.