The Conference Board’s confidence index slumped to 46, below the lowest forecast in a Bloomberg News survey of economists, from 56.5 in January, a report from the New York- based private research group showed today. A separate report showed home prices rose for a seventh month.

Stocks fell and Treasuries gained after the confidence report also showed attitudes about current conditions fell to the lowest level in 27 years and the outlook for wages dimmed. The survey reinforces expectations Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke will repeat the central bank's pledge to keep interest rates low for "an extended period" in testimony to Congress tomorrow.

"Consumer spending is going to disappoint throughout most of the year," said Steven Ricchiuto, chief economist at Mizuho Securities USA Inc. in New York. The economy "may not be out of the woods."

According to The NPD Group's ReCount data released Wednesday, the total number of U.S. restaurants declined 0.3 percent, or by 1,652 restaurants, to 578,353 locations in the fall of 2009, compared with the fall of 2008. ReCount tracks commercial restaurant locations twice a year, in the spring and fall.

Restaurant closures were more severe in the spring of 2009, when the total number of U.S. restaurants fell 1 percent from a year earlier, reflecting the loss of more than 4,000 eateries.

Growth the last three months of 2009 set the fastest pace since the third quarter of 2003 and beat economists' expectations of a 4.5% rate.

"I'm very impressed with what I've seen," says Bernard Baumohl, chief global economist at the Economic Outlook Group. "The skeptics of the economic recovery are going to have some explaining to do."

First, a disclaimer: 4th quarter GDP may not have been 5.7%. In fact, it's very likely it wasn't. This is just the first estimate, and there are two more revisions to come before the number is final. You may recall that 3rd quarter GDP started at 3.5% in its first estimate, only to be revised downward twice, to eventually settle at a much more mild 2.2% rate.

The home-improvement retailer said the cuts, which represent less than 1% of the roughly 322,000 workers it employs world-wide, are intended to boost productivity and are not in response to broader business or economic trends.

In a memo to employees Tuesday, Chairman and Chief Executive Frank Blake said the company has no plans to close stores besides the three pilot outlets: a small-format store in Wilson, N.C., a temporary hurricane-recovery outlet in Waveland, Miss., and a clearance store in Austell, Ga.

"I want to reiterate that this is not a case of the company cutting expenses in reaction to broader economic pressures or our business performance," Mr. Blake said in the memo.

Sales at U.S. stores open at least a year dropped 26.1 percent at luxury retailer Saks, trailing the 19.3 percent average of analysts' estimates compiled by Retail Metrics Inc. Comparable-store sales at Macy's, the No. 2 U.S. department-store operator, dropped 6.1 percent, more than the 1.5 percent estimated fall. Sales at smaller rival J.C. Penney slid 5.9 percent, missing a 4.6 percent projected decline.

The retailers blamed everything from the weather to the timing of sales to explain the disappointing November sales. For example, TJ Maxx and Macy's both blamed a warm November (though blaming the weather seems to be the retail industry's version of the "My dog ate my homework" excuse) and Saks said a clearance event that had taken place in November last year was taking place in December this year

November "was ugly," said Ken Perkins, president of Retail Metrics, which is based in Swampscott, Mass. "This doesn't bode well for the next three weeks," he added. "I think we will see more promotions than planned. Shoppers are focused on deals and necessities and retailers are going to have to make it worth their while" to hit the stores.

The upcoming U.S. holiday shopping season, typically a period of high consumer spending, will be eyed as a measure of economic recovery. Holiday travel and more shopping outings may boost oil consumption over the season, but more expensive fuel could curb these trips.

"A hike in discretionary driving associated with holiday shopping trips will exert more demand pressure, although if pump prices move above $3, it will not only kill discretionary driving but holiday shopping too," said Mike Fitzpatrick of MF Global in New York.

But fundamentally, there is much to restrain prices. Fuel supplies are brimming and that could make it harder for refiners to raise retail gasoline prices, delaying the impact of higher oil prices on consumers.

Fashion and footwear was one of the worst casualties of the recession with 17.9% of stores in the womenswear and kidswear sectors and 12.4% of menswear stores shutting their doors in the first nine months of this year. Footwear also fared badly with 14.9% of stores closing.

Figures broken down further by The Times suggest that the independent sector was a casualty of rising rates and limited access to credit during the period, with 15% of independent fashion stores reported to have closed in the nine months.

Net income slid to $549 million, or 55 cents a share, from $970 million, or 96 cents, a year earlier, Atlanta-based UPS said today in a statement. Revenue fell 15 percent to $11.2 billion.

UPS is considered a proxy for the U.S. economy because it handles half of all packages sent, ranging from auto parts and medicine to financial documents and clothing. UPS's Ground unit volume slid 6.2 percent as a competing service from FedEx Corp. took away some deliveries, said Donald Broughton, an analyst at Avondale Partners LLC in Nashville, Tennessee. He rates the shares "market perform." "Ground is the bread and butter of UPS and if that's down, it's not good," he said. "The underlying business was weaker than we expected."