With Chrysler in bankruptcy, GM heading for bankruptcy and the unemployment numbers at a high level, automaker are worried that Americans are about to break their new car habit.
In recent years Americans appeared to be hooked on it and took advantage of home equity loans, easy credit and cheap short-term lease deals to send new-car sales to levels of more than 17 million a year.
Now the market has collapsed by 46 percent to below 10 million, as people are making do with the cars they have, leaving the industry to debate — and worry — about what the new normal will be once the recession ends.
Some say the downturn is temporary and that sales will spring back in a few years. Others believe Americans will rethink whether they need so many cars, particularly new ones.
The answer will be important to the Obama administration as it prepares to put G.M. into bankruptcy on Monday. After the company emerges from bankruptcy, the federal government will own about 70 percent of it, in return for $50 billion in taxpayer aid. G.M. has already received about $20 billion in federal help.
The Treasury Department’s advisers, who initially expected auto sales to pick up late next year, now foresee no jump in demand this year or in 2010. And even five years out, they expect annual sales to be about 15 million, still well below the peaks of this decade.
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Donald Grimes, an economist at the University of Michigan, is forecasting the lowest sales for the driving-age population this year since 1970.
From 1970 to 2001, there were 0.76 vehicles sold per driver in the United States. Now that figure has dropped to 0.4 vehicles per driver, and he does not see much of a rebound in coming years.
The swift decline has spooked the industry. "I don't think there has ever been a period in our history like this," Josephine Cooper, Toyota’s group vice president for government and industry affairs, said of her company, which lost $7.1 billion in the first three months of the year. "It is very, very sobering."
It's hard to say what consumers will do when the economy turns around. But many city dwellers have decided that owning car is just too expensive and are using more public transportation. That is not an option in much of the southern United States and in the suburbs of California. Other than a few buses, public transportation is not available in much of the suburbs. And it's hard to take three kids to soccer practice, ballet classes and cub scouts on public transport. It's clear that for the next few years, people are going to be keeping their cars longer and avoiding new car debt.
