Summer Slowing H1N1 But Fall Outbreak Could Be More Serious
A Wall Street Journalsays that new H1N1 cases are slowing in most parts of the country - possibly a sign that warmer summer temperatures are reducing the spread of the virus. However, New York and New Jersey are still seeing elevated H1N1 influenza levels.
Anne Schuchat, the interim deputy director for CDC's science and public health program, said Tuesday states in New England along with New York and New Jersey are still seeing "elevated" levels of H1N1 influenza activity compared to the low levels of seasonal influenza typically seen in May.
But for all other regions of the country, Dr. Schuchat said the number of doctor visits for influenza-like illnesses fell below the national baseline, which suggests the return of the warmer weather is cutting down on the spread of the respiratory illness. But, she cautioned that the preliminary figures could change as states submit new data from this past Memorial Day weekend.
It would be great if we could catch a break from the novel H1N1 swine flu virus this summer. However, disease experts expect H1N1 to return and the fall when it could potentially be much more serious.
Meanwhile, Dr. Schuchat said officials are preparing for a "surge" of new influenza illnesses this autumn with the return of the seasonal influenza season in the Northern Hemisphere. She said the CDC and other world health officials are paying close attention to the start of the seasonal influenza season in the Southern Hemisphere and are looking at what happens to the H1N1 virus. On Friday the U.S. government announced it was spending $1 billion to start the process of making an H1N1 influenza vaccine, although there's still been no decision on whether to move ahead with a widespread vaccination program.
One concern officials have is that the new virus could become stronger like the virus that caused the 1918-1919 influenza pandemic, although so far the H1N1 virus hasn't shown the same biologic traits as the 1918-1919 virus. The H1N1 virus could continue circulating with the viruses that typically cause seasonal influenza or could die out next season.
The people dying this summer from H1N1 have not been elderly patients. These people may have underlying health problems like obesity, diabetes and asthma but they are young people in their 20s, 30s, 40s and 50s. This story about a swine flu death of a 44-year-old man in Toronto says that the family was taken totally by surprise. The man who died had diabetes that the family says was under control. The fear is that there could be considerably more deaths like this in the fall when the colder weather allows the flu to spread easily and rapidly. You can find more H1N1 resources here.
A Wall Street Journal 
