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Are Crocs Going Extinct?

Photo of pink CrocsIt appears that all is not well in the land of Crocs. Shares of the company plummeted over 40% after it released its dismal sales and earnings projections for 2008.
At least one Wall Street brokerage, Wedbush Morgan, downgraded its shares to "hold" from "strong buy" with analyst Jeff Mintz citing reduced retail demand for the product. "Current macrotrends in the environment" have led to weaker-than-expected sales, according to Crocs Chief Executive Ron Snyder, speaking to analysts during a conference call on Tuesday. Colder weather and the closure of the company's Canadian factory were also expected to crimp profit.

Reduced store traffic in U.S. stores, together with fewer retail orders, have cut into the footwear maker's sales, given what Snyder called the "impulse buy" nature of his company's shoes. "We need the traffic in order for our sales to really pick up," Snyder told analysts. U.S. consumers have been cutting back on purchases as they feel pressure from high gasoline and food costs, a slump in the housing market, tight credit and fears of a recession.

J.P. Morgan analyst Robert Samuels called Crocs' lowered guidance -- which predicts a possible loss of up to 5 cents per share in the first quarter from an earlier view of 46 cents profit -- "stunning." "We think bears will take the shortfall as evidence that the brand is over," Samuels wrote in a note. Samuels said he believed there was still a place in the footwear market for the Crocs brand, but advised investors to stay on the sidelines until current economic pressures, inventory issues and short-selling activity play out.
Crocs generally get a big sales boost in the second quarter, as stores increase orders for the back to school shopping season, but the company projects only 10 to 15 percent projected increase in revenue during that time period. A fifteen percent increase in sales is actually quite respectable, but given the irrational exuberance in the retail markets in the past six years or so it does seem shocking. With the recession setting in (90% of Pennsylvania primary voters think a recession is already here) it's clear that most parents will be cutting back on excessive clothing buying for the family. Also, we think that the company expanded much too aggressively, too quickly.

Of course, the Crocs haters are dancing in the streets at the thought that Crocs, like Uggs, will turn from trendy must-have into a standard item that many people have whether they are in fashion or not. As for us, you can pry our Crocs gardening shoes from our cold, dead hands. Because nothing beats Crocs for tromping around a wet backyard. It's not like we're wearing them to cocktail parties.

Tags: crocs | shoes

Posted on April 23, 2008
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