Oddsmakers Think Slumdog Millionaire Will Win Best Picture
Bloombergsays oddsmakers and predictions markets are very confident that Slumdog Millionaire will win Best Picture. The film has a 90% chance of winning according to Intrade.com, an online predictions market. Oddsmakers are also predicting that Mickey Rourke, Kate Winslet and Heath Ledger will win Oscars.
"Slumdog Millionaire" had a 90 percent chance of winning as of yesterday, making it the biggest favorite since 2002, according to Intrade.com, a Dublin-based Web site. If Intrade and other oddsmakers are right, Mickey Rourke, Kate Winslet and the late Heath Ledger will all win statuettes.
"We have never seen the markets so convinced," said John Delaney, chief executive officer of Intrade.com, where players buy shares in a movie's Oscar prospects.
The market's confidence in the outcome shows up in the potential payoffs. At Ladbrokes PLC, the U.K.-based gambling parlor operator, "Slumdog" bettors yesterday had to risk $8 to win $1.
Fivethirtyeight.com and the Hollywood Stock Exchange also see Slumdog as the Best Picture winner. The film has won many of the other big awards so it will be a surprise if it doesn't win Best Picture. The prediction markets are probably correct about Heath Ledger winning as well but most of the other Oscars are less predictable.
Bloomberg 
