Adobe Study Predicts Lowest Prices Will Fall on Thanksgiving Day

Posted on November 6, 2014

An interesting new Adobe study, called the Adobe 2014 Digital Index Online Shopping Forecast, predicts that online prices will hit their lowest level on Thanksgiving Day this year. Adobe predicts that the lowest prices will occur on Thanksgiving Day with an average discount of 24 percent. The chart above shows prices falling to their lowest levels on Thanksgiving Day and Black Friday with out-of-stock product views spiking on Cyber Monday.

In-store Black Friday sales have been pushed into Thanksgiving Day by most retailers and online Black Friday sales now tend to begin very early on Thanksgiving morning. Most online shoppers are already very aware that the best deals are now spread out from a period that starts the week of Thanksgiving and ends on Cyber Monday. The sprawling Black Friday sales can make it more difficult for shoppers to get the best deal if they aren't paying attention. Sales can come and go on different retail sites, such as with Amazon.com's Lightning deals. The Adobe study indicates that the best deals may actually be the Monday before Thanksgiving if you keep inventory in mind.

Adobe says that "out-of-stock messages will increase five-fold on Cyber Monday due to increased demand and limited supply." This means it will be important to shop early this year if you are seeking a popular item, such as a hot toy. The Adobe study also says prices overall will start to increase the Tuesday after Cyber Monday. Sometimes you can still find great deals late in the season but if inventory is limited that won't be the case and you won't find big discounts.

The Adobe study also revealed its predictions for the most popular gifts for 2014. They include the iPhone 6/6+, PlayStation 4, Roku, Call of Duty, Fitbit, Frozen dolls, Lego sets, Nintendo DS and 4K TVs from Sony and Samsung.

Mobile sales continue to grow with 31% of online sales expected to be generated by tablets and smartphones this year. That is a 10% increase from last year's 21%. The biggest mobile shopping day of the year will be Thanksgiving Day. The study also predicts that Black Friday will be the fastest growing online sales day this year.

Take a look:

Update: Adobe also released a report with sales data for the 2014 season.



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