Market researchers believe that 2007 will find consumers seeking out a new trend, which Robbie Blinkoff, managing partner of Context-Based Research Group, is calling simplexity.

"Consumers have been trying to simplify and organize their lives," he says, "but they've also been going down the complexity path, and the two are converging. Simplexity will be a synthesis of the two, yet distinctly different." While computer geeks have been tossing the word around for some time, it's now a genuine phenomenon among consumers, and explains their passion for brands like Apple's iPod, Skype, and Google's maps. "People understand that the technology behind these is very complex, but they have the veneer of simplicity," Blinkoff says. That doesn't mean the simplicity movement has finally jumped the shark, exactly. But as marketing trends go, it is probably time.

*****

"Simplicity is evolving into its next iteration," says Ann Clurman, a senior partner at Yankelovich. "The need for simplicity comes from an overarching need to be in control of your life. And that's not going away."

In fact, the goal of simplicity hasn't just penetrated the popular psyche--it's even got its own color wheel. Pantone Inc. recently released its palettes for the summer of 2008, announcing that "simplicity isn't a trend, it's a necessity. Next season will offer designers escape from fear of plainness and a new acceptance of the power of nothingness. As consumers move away from conspicuous, flamboyant expenditure, they are embracing an attitude of caring, consciousness and relaxation. Understatement will be in."

Translation: Look for ice-like blues, green shades related to aniseed, chlorophyll and menthol, as well as shades that "give way to a childlike, minimalist interpretation." And while consumers probably aren't walking around bragging about their "escape from the fear of plainness," they are looking for something new.

From nipple covers that resemble baby jellyfish to stick-on bras that look like rubber yarmulkes, today's high-tech designs are reusable, lightweight and often more comfortable and natural looking than traditional strapless bras, particularly when worn under sheer or thin fabrics. But they are about as sexy as surgical bandages or, as more than one woman put it, chicken cutlets. Removing one in front of a lover conjures cooking with Paula Deen, not the romance of French lace.

*****

"Taking them off hurts," said Melissa Giresi, 22, a business analyst in Boston. "It's like a really bad eyebrow waxing job." Caveats aside, there are several popular silicone options on the market. Two of the best selling on Figleaves.com are from Fashion Forms: the NuBra Divine Body Bra (a self-adhesive strapless style that resembles Mickey Mouse ears) and the Extreme Silicone Plunge Bra with underwire and clear silicone tabs that adhere to the torso. Mr. Koch singled out NuBra's Featherlite silicone strapless stick-on. "That has become the go-to product," he said.

This month, even more silicone choices were introduced. Premiere Line, created for Frederick's of Hollywood by Cristina Ehrlich and Estee Stanley, Los Angeles stylists whose clients include Demi Moore, Eva Mendes and Mary-Kate and Ashley Olsen, has a kit that includes silicone cups, silicone gel pads to cover nipples, a backless strapless bra and fabric tape. These products are a result of the stylists' efforts to support and conceal a variety of breast sizes in the most daring of fashions. In the past, they had to use a hodgepodge of household items.

"We've tried everything," Ms. Ehrlich said. "We've tried Band-Aids, we've cut up pantyhose, panty liners, gaffer's tape." Even women who were not fashion magazine devotees became aware of such machinations after Jennifer Lopez slinked down the red carpet at the 2000 Grammy Awards in a translucent Versace dress with nary a wardrobe malfunction. "It kind of blew the lid off the secret," said Jennifer Lowitz, a spokeswoman for Frederick's of Hollywood. "There was machinery. People became aware of tape and things stylists were using to get women dressed."

"The key thing is that the recipient would love to have it," she said. "Regifting out of laziness is against the principles of etiquette."

She added that the gift can't be "a cast-off or used item, and it can't be a one-of-a-kind thing. You have to be careful not to hurt any feelings."

One other common pitfall, said Leigh Zarelli, vice president of merchandising for Gifts.com, is regifting within the same social circle.

"It's best when you regift something to, say, a business associate or an out-of-town friend," she said. That reduces the likelihood that the original "gifter" will catch wind of the act.

He was the logical go-to guy, who showed Smith how to get all of the colored sides to match in less than 10 hours of instruction. But if you want to learn just to impress your friends, Mao can teach you in a lot less time.

Typically, he says, "After an hour and a half, (people) can solve the Rubik's Cube with a sheet of instructions on it, without any input from me. After 10 hours, Will Smith was able to solve the Rubik's Cube on his own, without anything. Not only learning the process, but committing it to memory. And Will is a pretty busy guy with many responsibilities. Basically, he had to memorize lines for his scenes and all that other stuff as well."

Initially, Mao was enlisted to help fake Smith's manipulation of the Cube.

"The first thought was that we could get a hand double," Mao says. "It turns out that, first of all, Will Smith didn't want that. It seemed to me he wanted to really just understand the character, so he wanted to learn to solve the Rubik's Cube on his own, and he wanted to do this genuinely on camera.

The Red Carpet Glam Hilary Duff Doll, which presents the singer-actress in 12-inch form outfitted in a polka-dot dress with a red satin sash, arrives just in time for last-minute holiday shopping. Not happy with the polka dots? Duff, who also designs, has fashioned other outfits for her little likeness, the Associated Press reports.

Jamie Wood, Mattel's vice president of Barbie marketing, said in a statement that Duff and Barbie are "great role models to girls and the perfect design duo. "Not only are they two of the most stylish entertainers, actors and fashion designers, but they also show girls there are no limits to what they can do."

Earlier this week, Duff and former boyfriend, tattooed Good Charlotte singer Joel Madden – who split last month after nearly two-and-a-half years together – asked a judge to lift their request for a temporary restraining order against a celebrity photographer, after the paparazzo apologized.

What seemed like a meteorological aberration — the coatless, hatless, gloveless morning commute in Washington, New York and Boston — is starting to feel like the new normal, encouraging consumers to splurge on a flat-screen television instead of a peacoat. The glut of winter wear has sent a chill through the executive suites of major retailers, who count on big profits from coats in the crucial holiday shopping season. They are even starting to grumble about the first “global warming Christmas.”

So like farmers praying for rain, merchants have begun scanning weather forecasts, hoping for a sudden drop in temperature to lift their sales. "At first, you start to chuckle in the morning when it's 50 degrees, then you start to snicker and then you start to curse," said Rick Weinstein, director of sales and marketing at Searle, a Manhattan retailer that supplies coats to high-end department stores.

A few days before Christmas, temperatures remained in the mid-40s from Maryland to Maine. Alex Grossman, a 33-year-old New York City resident, buys a new winter coat every holiday season, waiting until the first cold snap. This year, it did not come. "Now it's so late in the season I won't even buy one," he said, standing sans coat in Midtown Manhattan Thursday afternoon as temperatures reached 45 degrees. The NPD Group, a retail research firm, predicts that sales of outerwear will plunge at least 20 percent this holiday season, compared with last year, with the not-winter-like weather to blame. Retailers will not report holiday sales figures until January, but there are clear signs of trouble. Even apparel executives, generally an optimistic group, are acknowledging there is a problem.

"It's a fact of life: you need cold weather to sell cold-weather products,” said Barry Kay, co-president of Herman Kay, a Seventh Avenue clothing company that supplies coats to department stores like Macy's and J. C. Penney. The season, he said, "has been very tough." "I am still running in shorts," Mr. Kay said of his morning jogs through Central Park. “That is not a good thing.”

Across the Northeast, the average high temperature since Dec. 1 has been 47 degrees, compared with 32 degrees during the period in 2005, according to Planalytics, which tracks weather for retailers. In the metropolitan New York area, a retail mecca, the average high for the month of December has been 14 degrees warmer than in 2005 — 52 degrees, compared with 38 degrees, making this December the warmest since 2001.

In less than eight minutes, Saks Fifth Avenue sold all 20 special-edition 2007 Mercedes-Benz CL600s in its gift catalog for a cool $160,000 each. Neiman Marcus' 50 limited-edition BMW M6 convertibles sold out in just 92 seconds. The $139,000 price included a four-day trip to the company's factory in Munich.

At Saks Fifth Avenue, box sets of clothing and accessories are big holiday gifts this year - and they're pre-selected by Saks fashion experts. For men, you can buy a set of cufflinks, a pocket handkerchief, and tie that go together; for women, there are box sets of cosmetics with gifts like body lotions and fragrances.

If you have time to look through the racks at Saks, there are pre-selected shirt and silk tie combos, like those from Holliday & Brown (retails for $140), and even pre-packaged undergarment sets, like the "Joy To Couture Boyshort Set" from Juicy Couture (retails for $58.)

"Pre-selected combinations are great," said Andree Corroon, Vice President of Communications at Saks. "You come in, look, and boom, there it is."

With one week left before the big day, you probably won't find that hot holiday gift item on the shelf. You can find the spot where it's supposed to be....like Playstation 3 or the WII video game system. It looks cool on the display inside the store, but come 2pm at the Target on Alpine Avenue in Walker, you're not going to find one to buy. Lori Mattingly says, "We are looking for a WII for my nephew. It's the only thing he'll be getting this year if we can find one."

The hard-to-find items this year also include toys like the Rescue Dogs or Butterscotch the Pony. You might find one or two on the shelf, but don't expect to see Tickle Me Elmo or Baby Alive. You'll have to work a little harder to find these items. Even the ones you wouldn't expect to be sold out, like the One-Touch can opener, are out of stock. Here at Target, Manager Penny Evert says there is hope. She says, "The best bet is to shop early in the morning. Maybe even call at 8 am and see if we have the item in stock."

"We basically have four really hot categories," said Evanoff. "Playmobil theme toys, Legos, trains and puzzles."

Evans specializes in providing unique toys and a wide range of add-on toys for existing sets, such as Playmobil, Brio trains, Lionel trains and others.

"The Playmobil theme toys have been very, very strong for us," Evanoff said, "but the Legos have just been a blowout."

"There's not much out there anymore," Evanoff said of the themed Legos, which include Pirates of the Caribbean and Star Wars sets. "I reordered 30 percent more (of the Legos) each of the last four months, and still that wasn't enough."

"They've been out for about a year, but they're really starting to catch on," said Candy Lancioni, owner of Aunt Candy's Toy Co. in Rockford.

Basically, it's a stuffed animal that has a virtual life you can play online. Each Webkinz comes with a secret pass code. You log onto a Web site, enter your pass code and begin to build a virtual world for your friend.

You can design your pet's bedroom selecting wall colors and accessories, you do activities to earn cash to purchase food, and, of course, there are dozens of fun games to play. One of the most popular components of Webkinz online is the instant-messaging area on which fellow Webkinz wonder kids can talk to each other. Lisa Shrotenboer has bought her 6-year-old daughter several Webkinz.

"She just loves them," Shrotenboer said. "She's online just about every day talking and playing with one of her friends that lives in Alpena. It's a fun way the girls stay connected."

But remember the most important thing of all: When you think about "hot" toys, no two kids are alike, so we always say, "The hot toy is only hot if it's hot for your child." Lists are great, but kids are the ones who make toys truly popular. So have a blast and look for toys that help your kids express themselves, discover their world and develop their imaginations.

"I don't think anyone who has not been in a similar situation can possibly know how this feels: I am alternately elated and overwrought. I both want, and don't want, to finish this book (don't worry, I will.)"

65 % Still have gifts to buy

14 % Haven’t started

47 % Spent most of their holiday budgets on sale items

20 % Haven't purchased anything at full price

68 % Have purchased at least one unplanned gift

42 % Have purchased three or more unplanned gifts

53 % Haven’t purchased gift cards yet, implying an impending run on gift cards

37 % Plan to spend $100 or more on gifts between now and Christmas

35 %Plan to buy some gifts between Dec. 26 and Dec. 31

34% Said the stores they visited didn't have enough sales help

30 % Abandoned a purchase because of long checkout lines

42 % Left a store without buying because the item was out of stock

63 % Visited a store’s Web site before dropping in on the store

SOURCE: Deloitte & Touche USA. Survey of 564 U.S. consumers conducted online Dec. 18. Margin of error is plus or minus 4 points.

Deep discounts during the Thanksgiving weekend, fueled by increased competition in this area, have provided much of the increase, with almost 93,000 units flying off the shelves, or close to a seven-fold increase from the corresponding year-ago period, according to NPD But even a week later, sales were still strong, increasing two-fold from the year-ago period.

The market leaders are Garmin, TomTom and Magellan, but others have gotten into the GPS game, including Sony, mapmaker Rand McNally and car audio firms Kenwood and Alpine. Ross Rubin, technology analyst for NPD, said the holiday sales reflect a year-long surge in GPS popularity as the public has increasingly embraced the technology, formerly limited to boaters and pilots. The cost of GPS units has also declined with some makers selling entry-level devices for around $300. "These are relatively gift-friendly items," Rubin said.

This next electronic gift will be a nightmare for your teenaged driver.

"It's a GPS tracking system and is a great way for parents to keep tabs on their kids," Haddad said.

"Install it in your teen's car and it keeps track of where the car is driven, how fast it was driven and how long it stayed in any particular spot. When he/she returns home, you plug the receiving unit into the USB port on your home computer and it will print out all the information.

"I can't think of a parent who wouldn't want to know where their teen was with the car that day."

The C3a Inverted Jenny is the most popular United States stamp and has recently gained worldwide notoriety when election workers in Broward County, Florida claimed to have found one affixed to an absentee ballot last month. While that C3a was determined to be a fake, it still helped to promote philately throughout the world and was featured in most newspapers, televised newscasts and other media outlets. StampWants.com wants to keep this newly sparked interest in philately alive, which is one of the key reasons behind this unrivaled promotion.

"This historic promotion to give away arguably the most popular stamp in the word, the rare C3a Inverted Jenny, will go down in history as revitalizing the world's interest in philately," said Mark Rosenberg, StampWants.com's President and CEO. "It will catapult StampWants.com to the number one collectible stamp marketplace and community, and will be remembered in philatelic history."

The C3a was printed in 1918, when the center image of the Curtis JN-4 (Jenny) airplane was accidentally printed upside down. Only 100 are known to exist, all of which came from one sheet of 100. For the last 88 years, collectors have sought after, admired and been fascinated with this striking stamp.

To participate in the giveaway, entrants simply need to enter online at http://www.stampwants.com/ and will have the opportunity to enter once every day until the promotion's closing date. Official Rules are available on www.stampwants.com.

The C3a Inverted Jenny Giveaway coincides with another unprecedented promotion StampWants.com is currently running, where all seller listing and end of auction fees (except optional upgrades) are free until January 31, 2007.

The bar was built entirely of ice in a refrigerated cube in the hotel’s courtyard. Guests are given a black rabbit-fur Kaufman Franco poncho for their 30-minute session inside the boudoir-style interior, which is kept at a frosty 18 degrees. While the hors d’oeuvres won’t cure frostbite (ice bars and sorbet), the flavored vodkas (ginger, cinnamon and vanilla among others) served at the glacial bar just might. The bar is open daily, 6 to 11 p.m. until Jan. 15, and the entrance fee of 55 euros (about $74 at $1.36 to the euro) includes drinks and amuse bouches. Reservations are required; call (33-1) 49-52-70-06.

Eskimo wannabes can opt to stay in a two-to six-person igloo for a night, with a near-guarantee that they will be the first on the piste in the morning. A night's stay starts at 99 euros a person, and includes dinner in the hotel lobby, right next to the open-all-day Igloo bar, and breakfast. Those looking for love in a cold climate can reserve the romantic suite — which includes a private whirlpool bath.

At the CryoTherapy Center at the AquaCity resort in Poprad (www.aquacity.sk), patrons wearing only a headband, shirt, shorts, socks, clogs, gloves and a face mask enter two chambers. The first is cooled to 76 degrees below zero for 30 seconds to a minute, the second to 184 below zero for two minutes. (Bear in mind the coldest temperature ever recorded on earth was 128.6 below zero, in Antarctica.) Afterward, clients are taken to a gym for a 20-minute medically supervised aerobic workout in which the subsequent release of endorphins ("I'm alive!") is said to help alleviate depression, stress and pain.

Whether it be a luxury Lexus or clunker from the classifieds, the gift of a car just isn't the same without a big bow on top of the hood. That was Lynda King's thinking when she started King Size Bows five years ago, after she was unable to find a bow for a car she bought for her teenage daughter's birthday.

"People always ask about it," King said. "People always wonder about it, where they come from. It's every wife's fantasy to run outside and find a new car with a big bow on it."

The idea stayed in the back of King's mind for a while, and after consulting with some of her area car dealers, she began developing a bow that would ship and assemble easily. This year, she expects her Newport Beach, Calif.-business to sell about 15,000 to 20,000 bows, which sell for $48 each and come in a variety of designs.

Many of the bows go to car dealerships, especially Lexus dealers, which feature even larger bows in their holiday advertising.

In separate incidents on opposite coasts this week, the seriously thin became a serious issue. Early Monday morning, celebutante Nicole Richie was arrested for driving under the influence after she was spotted driving the wrong way on the 134 Freeway. According to the booking sheet, the 25-year-old star of "The Simple Life" is 5 feet 1 and 85 pounds.

By coincidence the next day, designer Diane von Furstenberg, in her capacity as president of the Council of Fashion Designers of America, sent the organization's members a letter urging them to take a position on the issue of underweight models. Her letter followed a meeting last week of industry leaders such as Vogue editor Anna Wintour, designers Derek Lam and Vera Wang, and health and nutrition experts. The letter called dangerously thin models a "global fashion issue." Further, Von Furstenberg wrote that "as designers, we cannot ignore the impact fashion has on body image. We share a responsibility to protect women, and very young girls in particular, within the industry, sending the message that health is beauty."

*****

Alarming recent events have put the gaunt under increased scrutiny. In August, a model in Uruguay collapsed on the runway and died of heart failure, possibly from being underweight. In September, the organizers of fashion week in Madrid issued the world's first catwalk ban on models who didn't meet a minimum body mass ratio of 18, a number calculated on height and weight that would exclude Kate Moss. In November, a 21-year-old Brazilian model, Ana Carolina Reston, died in a Sao Paulo hospital from complications of anorexia. She was 5 feet 8 and weighed 88 pounds. Brazil has joined the campaign to create guidelines.

After initially refusing to follow Madrid's standards, representatives of the Italian government and its fashion trade group, the Camera Nazionale della Moda, said last week that they would establish minimums for the weight and age of models. The rules would take effect with February's shows, making Milan the first fashion capital to embrace such guidelines. Fashion houses that don't abide might be prevented from showing.

This week, Von Furstenberg said it's important that the American industry join the dialogue: "We have an opportunity to help, and I think we have to seize that opportunity." Richie's well-publicized shrinking frame has again caused concern that she has become an unhealthy fashion role model, particularly since she has become ubiquitous in style and celebrity magazines and television shows.

For Darla D’Amato, lightening up means letting someone else climb a ladder to hang Christmas lights on her family's new 5,600 square-foot home in Katy, Texas. She paid $2,200 for a crew of people to hang Christmas lights and later take the lights down and store them until next Christmas. She said her new house is too tall for her husband to hang the lights, but having Christmas lights is a tradition in her family.

"Just thinking about getting all the Christmas stuff down every year just gives my husband a heart attack," said D'Amato, an executive at an investment firm. "It is much more time efficient for us to hire someone who knows what they’re doing."

Freeman said about 3 percent of his customers spend $10,000 or more per year to spruce up their lots - one customer paid $73,000 this year for mostly custom-built pieces to display.

An LED-animated scene of three elves putting a star on a tree costs $3,900 according to the Brite Ideas Web site. Santa on a motorcycle costs $1,950. Combining displays for neighborhood bragging rights can quickly run up the price tag.

After all, it's hard keeping up with new decorations, neighborhood aesthetics and an ever-increasing holiday spirit.

"It's definitely the high end market, where people want something new and unique and they're willing to pay for it," Freeman said. "They just want to stand out."

"It's unconscionable for us for the sake of vanity to contribute to the destruction of a country," said a bling-free Jennifer Connelly late last month at the New York premiere of Blood Diamond, which also stars Leonardo DiCaprio and Djimon Hounsou. "So I think trying to make more effective the system of warranties is a pretty clear choice." More people are tuning in, said Carley Roney, editor in chief of theknot.com, a wedding Web site. "There’s extensive discussion going on our message boards," she said. "Many women are saying, 'This is supposed to be a symbol of all things good and I don't want to look down on my finger and think of women and children being killed.' It undermines the entire meaning of that ring."

*****

Blood Diamond depicts how diamond companies ignored atrocities committed in the 1990's by rebels in Sierra Leone who sold rough diamonds to buy arms. The World Diamond Council, which represents producers and dealers, has responded with ads and a Web site, diamondfacts.org. The council stresses that more than 99 percent of diamonds now come from conflict-free sources, and that diamond revenue today is mostly used in African countries for health care, education and other benefits.

"You’re looking at a very, very small percentage of the world supply that can be considered to be from a conflict zone," said Carson Glover, a spokesman for the World Diamond Council. "Consumers can feel very confident in their diamond purchase." But international human rights groups like Amnesty International and Global Witness, which first publicized the issue of conflict diamonds in 1998, say dirty diamonds still reach the market because of smuggling and weak controls by some producing countries, and that consumers have no surefire way of telling if a diamond is clean. A spokeswoman for Global Witness noted diamonds are still coming from conflict areas like the Ivory Coast, and that a recent General Accounting Office report found fault with the way the United States was enforcing the tracking system. (The organization's Web site is blooddiamondaction.org.)

Tom Zoellner, who researched the industry for his book The Heartless Stone (St. Martin's Press, 2006), said the Kimberley Process doesn't concern itself with objectionable practices like the use of child labor in India, where most diamonds are polished. But he said because many Africans depend on them for their livelihood, a boycott is not the answer. The best defense against dirty diamonds, he said, is to ask questions. Rights groups suggest going to retailers who can show a guarantee that the diamonds are conflict free.

Whether it's the latest Elmo craze, a trendy new clothing style or the most advanced electronic gaming system, 2006's holiday gift list is full of new takes on the traditional Christmas gifts.

Lori Jones, marketing director for Northpark Mall in Joplin, Mo., said that from her office's observations, luxury items focusing on wants instead of needs are popular again this year, including lotions, colognes, candles and massages.

Electronics have been popular for the past several holiday seasons. This year, iPods and accessories are in demand, along with cell phones and accessories, and video game systems such as the recently released PlayStation 3 and Nintendo Wii.

Clothing continues to be popular for gifts, Jones said, with red accents in shoes, scarves and belts especially trendy this holiday season. Long tunic shirts and cowl-neck sweaters paired with leggings are being featured in mall display windows for shops marketing to women of every age. Jones said taking a long look at the display windows could help the fashion-challenged shopper select an appropriate Christmas gift.

"An iPod that plays any song that happens to pop inside your head -- even if you couldn't remember the name of the song or the artist."
Chelsey Sutton, senior, Auburn High School

"The ultimate virtual video game -- all five senses are engaged: Sight, taste, touch, smell and hearing."
Brandon Rich, sophomore, Auburn High School

"Probably an iPod that you can clip directly on your ear."
Curtis Falgiani, sophomore, Giles High School

"The iPod Atom. iPods will get so small that they'll be the size of an atom and it'll be $3."
Drew Myers, senior, Hidden Valley High School

"An easy-bake oven that makes diamonds and other precious jewels." Jacob Morgan, junior, Auburn High School

The new Tickle Me Elmo, called T.M.X., just became available online at noon on Wednesday, according to the report.

Wal-Mart said it landed the Elmo jackpot and will sell 4,000 Elmo dolls for the rest of this week at noon on its Web site.

Many people questioned how Wal-Mart scored the hard-to-get toys with some analysts suggesting that the store may have been holding back some of its supply to boost sagging holiday sales.

Wal-Mart Stores' online shopping site suffered a brief outage Wednesday when an unexpectedly high number of anxious Christmas shoppers flocked to the site looking for the hard-to-find Elmo T.M.X. doll.

The retail company didn't disclose details, but said in an e-mail that Wal-Mart.com experienced an "incredibly high traffic volume" when the doll went on sale. It was sold out within a matter of minutes.

"This higher-than-expected traffic spike caused a brief site outage," Wal-Mart spokeswoman Amy Colella said.

Wal-Mart apologized to customers for the inconvenience and said it had corrected the problem to avoid a similar outage in the future. The hugely popular Elmo T.M.X would be available again at various times Thursday and Friday, Wal-Mart said.